Eritrea-Ethiopia Tensions Escalate, Raising Regional War Fears
Long-standing hostility between Eritrea and Ethiopia has intensified, with both nations making preparations for potential conflict. The core dispute centres on Ethiopia’s stated need for access to the Red Sea, a demand Eritrea views as a direct provocation to its sovereignty. Violence has escalated along their shared border in the Tigray region, where Eritrean troop deployments have increased instability. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supplying ammunition to rebels in the Amhara region—a claim Asmara denies, calling it a pretext for aggression. Despite Ethiopia’s assertions that it seeks dialogue, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki claims Addis Ababa has already declared war. The mutual distrust is rooted in a brutal 1998-2000 border war and the recent Tigray conflict (2020-2022), which involved Eritrean forces. The International Crisis Group warns that any direct military clash, whether accidental or intentional, could destabilise the entire Horn of Africa and draw in neighbouring states and Gulf powers. The region’s volatility is compounded by the war in Sudan and shifting alliances.
Somaliland Courts US with Resource and Military Access Bid
In a separate move that could reshape regional geopolitics, the self-declared Republic of Somaliland has signalled its willingness to grant the United States exclusive rights to its mineral resources and military bases. This offer is part of Somaliland’s sustained campaign for international recognition as an independent state, separate from Somalia. Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi confirmed hopes for a bilateral agreement with Washington. Somaliland is believed to hold significant deposits of lithium and coltan. The initiative follows Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland in December 2023, a step condemned by Somalia’s federal government as a violation of sovereignty and by the African Union and most Arab states. While Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi stated no final economic deal with Israel exists, he expects a “partnership agreement” involving mineral rights. The United States has yet to indicate any policy shift toward recognising Somaliland, which has operated autonomously since 1991 with its own institutions.
The convergence of these developments—military brinkmanship between two regional powers and a breakaway territory’s strategic overture to a global superpower—highlights the acute instability and complex realignments shaping the Horn of Africa. Both situations carry significant risks of wider escalation and underscore the urgent need for diplomatic engagement to prevent further conflict and manage the region’s growing strategic importance.
