Free and Fair 2027 Polls: Tinubu Sees APC Cap at 20%

Nigerian Opposition Figure Claims President Tinubu Acknowledges APC’s Electoral Vulnerability for 2027

A senior figure from Nigeria’s main opposition party has asserted that President Bola Tinubu privately believes his own All Progressives Congress (APC) would secure no more than 20% of the vote in a genuinely free and fair 2027 presidential election.

The statement was made by Gbenga Olawepo Hashim, a national chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), during a live interview on Channels Television’s ‘Sunday Politics’, monitored by the Media Talk Africa. Olawepo Hashim was discussing the political landscape ahead of the next general election.

He directly challenged the APC’s public confidence, questioning the rationale behind any fear of the opposition if it were truly “dead and buried.” “All the internet or data boys praise President Tinubu as a strategist,” Olawepo Hashim said. “He has done the polls, and he knows that in a free and fair election today, the APC cannot score 20 per cent of the vote.”

The PDP chieftain further alleged that the ruling party faces significant internal challenges, claiming, “Even in the same APC, they know who are ready to bite them in the back. And I can tell you that they have more issues than the PDP.” His comments suggest a belief that the APC’s internal cohesion is a greater threat to its re-election prospects than the organizational strength of the PDP.

The 2027 election is widely seen as a critical test for Nigeria’s democracy, following the 2023 polls that brought President Tinubu to power amid opposition legal challenges and concerns over electoral processes. Olawepo Hashim’s remarks highlight the deep-seated skepticism within the opposition regarding the fairness of future contests and the ruling party’s perceived popular support.

The statement adds a new dimension to the pre-election political manoeuvring, implying that the APC’s leadership is aware of a potential electoral collapse under conditions of a level playing field. This narrative of internal APC discord and alleged presidential foreknowledge of electoral weakness is likely to fuel further debate as the nation looks toward the 2027 general election.

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