China’s export growth decelerated sharply in March, rising just 2.5 per cent year-on-year, official data showed Tuesday, as global trade faces mounting uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The slowdown was more pronounced than expected, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting an 8.6 per cent expansion.
The figures follow a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2024, bolstered by a more than 20 per cent jump in combined January-February exports. But March’s weaker performance reflects mounting headwinds, including a sharp 26.5 per cent drop in shipments to the United States, which totalled $29.4 billion. The decline comes amid renewed trade tensions after Washington imposed steep tariffs under President Donald Trump.
On the import side, China saw a strong rebound, with inbound shipments soaring 27.8 per cent — well above the 14 per cent forecast. Analysts attributed the surge largely to higher global energy prices, which have climbed sharply amid the US-Iran conflict. While China’s diversified energy sources offer some insulation, experts warn that a broader economic slowdown could dampen demand for its manufactured goods.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that growth to major export destinations slowed across the board, with Middle East tensions weighing on global demand. “I think China’s trade surplus will likely shrink this year,” he said, adding that elevated energy costs may hit competitors harder than China, given the scale and efficiency of its manufacturing sector.
The data comes ahead of Beijing’s closely watched first-quarter GDP release on Thursday, with the government targeting annual growth of 4.5–5.0 per cent — the lowest in decades. Economists polled by AFP expect the economy to have expanded 4.8 per cent in the first quarter, up slightly from 4.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2024.
Beijing faces growing calls to rebalance its economy away from reliance on exports and infrastructure investment toward stronger domestic consumption, especially as a prolonged property sector crisis continues to weigh on growth and consumer confidence.
