Rising oil and gas prices may offer short-term revenue gains for developing world producers, but the benefits are likely to be fleeting, the head of the United Nations trade agency has warned.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre (ITC), told Reuters that while countries such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya could see increased oil revenues, the gains would be limited. All but Kazakhstan remain net importers of refined petroleum products, meaning higher prices could still weigh on their economies.
The warning comes amid heightened global energy market volatility following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and the announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged after the breakdown in negotiations, with both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate topping $100 a barrel before retreating in subsequent sessions.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is among those currently benefiting from the price rally. The federal government had projected a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel in its 2026 budget. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that the gains from higher oil revenues will be offset by rising shipping costs and broader supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict.
On Tuesday, the IMF revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast down to 4.1 per cent, citing the combined impact of higher fuel and fertiliser prices, elevated shipping costs, and war-related supply shocks. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, noted that energy-importing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable, with growth downgrades and inflationary pressures already evident.
Denz Igan, head of the IMF’s World Economic Studies Division, explained that while higher oil prices provide some offset, the net effect is weaker growth in 2026, with a modest recovery expected in 2027.
The IMF is coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank to monitor energy market disruptions and assess country-level needs in the current environment.
