Fertiliser shortages triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are raising alarm in developing countries, the head of the United Nations trade agency has warned. Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre (ITC), told Reuters that the immediate impact on fertiliser supplies could threaten global food security.
“The more immediate issue is fertiliser, because that then affects food security and food security is always the basis for stability,” she said. Coke-Hamilton noted that a third of global urea supplies—an essential nitrogen-based fertiliser—normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route now disrupted by tensions between Iran and the United States.
“There are significant issues with respect to availability of fertilisers, and also there’s a timeline for agriculture in terms of ensuring you have enough for the next harvest, which is being missed now,” she added.
The UN said on Monday that diplomatic efforts were underway to secure safe passage for fertiliser shipments through the strait under a UN-led proposal.
The ITC highlighted that dependence on Gulf nitrogen fertilisers is highest in several Asian and African developing nations, including Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. Shortages typically lead to reduced fertiliser use and lower crop yields, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where rain-dependent farming and narrow planting windows make farmers especially vulnerable to input cost fluctuations.
While alternative suppliers, particularly in North Africa, could help bridge the gap, the ITC said Egypt has the potential to export an additional $1.6 billion worth of fertilisers, with Algeria offering a further $1.3 billion. Countries such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya may benefit from increased oil revenues, but these gains would be limited as all but Kazakhstan remain net importers of refined petroleum products.
Higher natural gas prices may benefit exporters like Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, but the ITC cautioned that supply expansion is likely to be constrained in the short term.
The disruption underscores the fragility of global agricultural supply chains and the urgent need for diversified sourcing to safeguard food production in the world’s most vulnerable regions.
