Fertiliser shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are raising concerns in developing countries, according to Pamela Coke-Hamilton, the executive director of the International Trade Centre (ITC). In an interview with Reuters, she emphasized that the immediate impact on fertiliser supplies poses a significant threat to global food security. “The more immediate issue is fertiliser, because that then affects food security, and food security is always the basis for stability,” she stated.
Coke-Hamilton pointed out that approximately one-third of global urea supplies, which is a crucial nitrogen-based fertiliser, typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital shipping route is currently disrupted due to escalating tensions between Iran and the United States. She added, “There are significant issues with respect to the availability of fertilisers, and also there’s a timeline for agriculture in terms of ensuring you have enough for the next harvest, which is being missed now.”
In response to the crisis, the United Nations announced on Monday that diplomatic efforts are underway to secure safe passage for fertiliser shipments through the strait under a UN-led proposal. The ITC has highlighted that several Asian and African developing nations, including Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka, have a high dependence on Gulf nitrogen fertilisers. Shortages typically result in reduced fertiliser use and lower crop yields, particularly in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where rain-dependent farming and limited planting windows make farmers especially susceptible to fluctuations in input costs.
While alternative suppliers, particularly in North Africa, could help mitigate the shortages, the ITC noted that Egypt has the potential to export an additional $1.6 billion worth of fertilisers, with Algeria able to contribute a further $1.3 billion. Countries like Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya may see benefits from increased oil revenues; however, these gains are likely to be limited, as all but Kazakhstan are net importers of refined petroleum products. Although higher natural gas prices may benefit exporters such as Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, the ITC cautioned that supply expansion is expected to be constrained in the short term.
This disruption highlights the fragility of global agricultural supply chains and underscores the urgent need for diversified sourcing to protect food production in the world’s most vulnerable regions.
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