A growing risk of jet fuel shortages threatens to disrupt flights across Europe and Asia due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has been nearly entirely closed since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Industry experts caution that if the blockade persists, supply shortfalls could begin within weeks. Claudio Galimberti, an economist at Rystad Energy, informed CNBC that the situation could become “systemic” within three to four weeks, potentially leading to significant flight reductions in Europe as early as May or June.
While some cancellations have already occurred, the European Commission has stated that no shortages have been confirmed yet. However, a spokeswoman acknowledged that supply issues, particularly concerning jet fuel, could emerge soon. The Airports Council International Europe has alerted the European Commission that shortages could begin in early May if tankers are not permitted to pass through the strait by that time. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning, indicating that if European markets cannot replace more than half of their lost jet fuel volumes from the Middle East, stocks could reach critical levels by June.
The impact of these shortages will vary across regions. Japan has built substantial reserves despite its heavy reliance on imports. In Europe, countries like Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland have comfortable fuel stocks, while the UK, Iceland, and the Netherlands are facing tighter supplies. France falls somewhere in between. Additionally, airports and airlines will experience different levels of vulnerability; smaller, inland airports are likely to be more affected than major hubs.
Airlines for Europe (A4E), which represents carriers such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and Ryanair, has urged the EU to provide real-time data on jet fuel stocks at airports. However, fuel suppliers have been reluctant to share sensitive commercial data, complicating planning efforts. TotalEnergies has warned that if Gulf supplies remain blocked into June, it may struggle to meet all customer demand. A4E has also proposed temporarily allowing imports of US jet fuel, which is produced to slightly different specifications. However, political and logistical hurdles make this option unlikely in the short term. With the blockade showing no signs of easing, airlines and airports are preparing for potential disruptions as early as next month.
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