Nigeria is poised to experience a substantial increase in crude oil revenue as its premium crude grades, Brass River and Qua Iboe, surged to $113 per barrel on Thursday. This price is significantly higher than the international Brent benchmark, which stood at $96 per barrel. Market data accessed by Channels Television at 9:54 AM WAT indicated that Brass River was trading at $113.82 and Qua Iboe at $113.72 per barrel. This price surge reflects strong global demand and a shift in trade flows, particularly in light of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The increase in crude oil prices coincides with Nigeria’s crude oil production reaching 1.8 million barrels per day. Finance Minister Wale Edun, speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington, emphasized that rising production levels would enhance government revenue, bolster foreign exchange reserves, and create fiscal space to support vulnerable households. The spike in Nigerian crude prices is partly attributed to the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, which has disrupted global energy markets. Iranian threats to shipping have halted nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting buyers in Europe and Asia to seek alternative sources.
As a result, Nigerian crude has emerged as an attractive option, with countries like Japan placing new orders to compensate for lost Middle Eastern supplies. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained near its lowest level since early March against major currencies, buoyed by optimism surrounding potential peace talks with Iran. The dollar index remained steady at 97.969, having declined for eight consecutive sessions. In Nigeria, the naira appreciated during Thursday’s opening session of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, trading at approximately N1,344.20 per dollar. This improvement was supported by enhanced foreign currency inflows and the Central Bank’s efforts to address forex backlogs.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s crude oil revenue for 2025 is estimated at roughly N55.5 trillion, based on a production forecast of about 530.41 million barrels. Although output improved to between 1.38 and 1.8 million barrels per day in early 2026, the sector continues to struggle with operational challenges and pipeline issues that prevent it from meeting OPEC quotas. Key export terminals include Forcados, Bonny, Qua Iboe, and Escravos. Additionally, U.S. crude oil exports surged last week to 5.2 million barrels per day, the highest level in seven months, narrowing net imports to just 66,000 barrels per day, the lowest on record. Nearly half of U.S. exports were directed to Europe, with significant volumes also heading to Asia as buyers sought to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
With Nigeria’s oil benchmark set at $60 per barrel for 2026, the current price surge presents a rare fiscal windfall. This reinforces the sector’s critical role in the country’s economy, especially amid ongoing reforms and production challenges.
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