Aliko Dangote, Nigeria’s leading industrialist, has told the Financial Times that he is now favouring Kenya as the site for his planned $15‑$17 billion oil refinery, which would process up to 650,000 barrels per day. The move follows a diplomatic row with Tanzania after an earlier proposal to locate the plant at the coastal city of Tanga.
In an interview, Dangote said the deep‑water port of Mombasa offers a clear logistical advantage over Tanga, allowing crude oil to be shipped directly to the refinery without the need for a 1,500‑kilometre pipeline from Uganda’s oil fields. “Kenya has a larger economy and higher fuel consumption,” he explained, adding that the final decision rests with Kenyan President William Ruto.
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan recently expressed dissatisfaction to her Kenyan counterpart, claiming she had not been consulted about the initial plan to build the refinery on Tanzania’s coastline. She raised the issue at an infrastructure summit last month, which took place without her presence.
Dangote said the project will move forward only if Kenya provides suitable land, financing from regional partners and, crucially, protection against what he described as “dumping” of cheap fuel from exporters such as Russia and India. “No refinery can survive without that protection,” he warned, suggesting that an agreement could see construction start within the year. He left the door open to a Tanzanian location if the country can resolve its internal disagreements.
The proposed refinery would be the world’s largest single‑train facility, rivaling the capacity of global majors. Dangote’s own Lagos refinery, completed in 2015 after ten years of in‑house construction, already operates at full capacity and has become a key supplier of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and urea fertiliser across the continent. The plant’s output has helped Nigeria avoid the fuel shortages experienced elsewhere in Africa, and it has attracted premium sales of jet fuel to European airlines coping with reduced supplies from the Strait of Hormuz.
Kenyan officials have welcomed the prospect, with President Ruto praising Dangote’s ambition as evidence that African entrepreneurs can deliver mega‑projects. “When you look at Nigeria, there were long queues at the pumps until an African stepped forward and built a refinery,” the president said, referencing Dangote’s achievement.
Dangote, who has built his fortune on commodities ranging from salt and sugar to cement, says he intends to double the capacity of the Lagos refinery to 1.4 million bpd, bringing it on par with India’s Reliance Industries. He estimates that, within 30 months, the combined capacity of his African operations could represent about 10 percent of U.S. refining capability, positioning his group as a price‑setter in regional markets.
The refinery proposal underscores a broader shift toward African‑led energy infrastructure, at a time when global fuel markets are volatile and many countries struggle with supply disruptions. If Kenya grants the required concessions, the project could reshape the East African oil landscape, create thousands of jobs and reduce the region’s dependence on imported refined products. The next steps will hinge on negotiations between Dangote Group and the Kenyan government, with President Ruto’s decision set to determine the venture’s final destination.
