Trump has dismissed Tehran’s recent peace overture as “a piece of garbage” and is reportedly considering a resumption of large-scale strikes. The United States and Iran remain far apart on a potential settlement, and the tentative cease-fire, which has held for about a month, is under strain due to ongoing naval confrontations and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, the president stated that the cease-fire was “on massive life support” and admitted that he had not yet finished reading Tehran’s proposal. Sources cited by CNN indicate that Trump’s frustration with Iran’s negotiating stance is growing. Some Pentagon officials share the belief that renewed combat operations could pressure Tehran into making concessions.
The strategic choke point in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, has experienced a significant collapse in traffic. Prior to the conflict, approximately 3,000 vessels passed through each month, carrying about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas. However, in April, only 191 ships made the crossing, according to data from Kpler, and Marine Traffic reported no major commercial vessels transiting the strait over the past weekend. Currently, an estimated 1,600 ships are stranded in the Gulf.
Earlier, Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a military initiative to escort the stranded ships, but he halted the operation after less than 48 hours, citing “progress” in talks. This pause occurred shortly after Iran claimed to have struck a U.S. warship attempting to traverse the strait, a claim that Washington denied. A report from the New York Times suggested that the operation was also curtailed because Saudi Arabia declined to provide logistical support.
On May 8, the U.S. military reported that three destroyers transiting the strait were attacked by Iranian forces, although no damage was confirmed. In response, the United States struck Iranian military facilities and destroyed six small Iranian boats in the area. Tehran has warned that any vessel entering the strait without permission will be targeted.
Negotiations between the two nations remain stalled. Washington has proposed a 14-point memorandum requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, surrender an estimated 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, and renounce any future nuclear weapons program—measures that Tehran asserts it has never pursued. In exchange, the United States would gradually lift sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets, and restore normal shipping through Hormuz within 30 days.
Iran’s counter-offer calls for the immediate reopening of the strait, the lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions, and a cease-fire in Lebanon, while requesting the postponement of any nuclear-related discussions. Iranian officials have described their proposal as “reasonable and generous,” but Trump has rejected it as “unacceptable.”
The ongoing clash has also taken a toll on military resources. Satellite imagery cited by the Washington Post revealed that Iranian strikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures across 15 U.S. bases, including hangars, fuel depots, and air-defense systems, which is more than Washington has publicly acknowledged. The U.S. has expended nearly half of its Patriot interceptor stockpile and has heavily utilized six other missile stockpiles, depleting its anti-air capability. In contrast, Tehran retains approximately three-quarters of its mobile launchers and 70% of its missile inventory, contradicting earlier U.S. statements suggesting that Iranian forces had been crippled.
The ongoing standoff poses a significant threat to global energy markets and presents a strategic dilemma for the United States and its allies. With the Strait of Hormuz still blocked and diplomatic channels stalled, the risk of further escalation remains high. Observers note that any shift in U.S. policy—whether a renewed military push or increased diplomatic pressure—will significantly shape the security landscape of the Gulf and its impact on global oil supplies in the weeks ahead.
