No fewer than 28.4 million Nigerians in 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory—including 18,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs)—are projected to face severe crises between June and August this year because of fuel shortages and the scarcity of naira, according to the latest Cadre Harmonise (CH) report. The March 2023 CH analysis, which also covered 26 states, indicated that about 17.7 million people, including 14 000 IDPs, were already in crisis or worse through May 2023.
Cadre Harmonise is an early‑warning tool adopted by partners in the food‑security sector, typically developed at the government’s request to prevent and manage food and nutrition emergencies. The process is led by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development through the National Programme for Food Security, in close collaboration with other ministries, departments and agencies. Technical and financial support for the CH report comes from global, regional and national partners such as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Food Programme, Save the Children, UNICEF, Mercy Corps, and others.
The report identified the naira redesign as a key driver of the crisis, noting that the withdrawal of old naira notes created a serious bottleneck that limited households’ ability to access cash and food commodities. Prolonged scarcity of petroleum motor spirit (petrol) and the resulting surge in pump prices have caused transport fares and food costs to soar across the country. Consequently, the consumer price index rose from 15.7 % in February 2022 to 21.9 % in February 2023—a 39.49‑percentage‑point increase year‑on‑year—fueling food insecurity.
Insecurity remains a persistent problem, especially insurgency in the North‑East states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. Armed banditry and kidnapping for ransom also continue in some North‑West states (Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna) and North‑Central states (Benue, Niger). Food consumption levels have stayed inadequate and below the desired threshold in most states. In several local government areas (LGAs) of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, consumption is so critical that most LGAs have entered the crisis phase. During the current analysis period, most households in the surveyed areas adopted crisis‑to‑worse livelihood coping measures, often disposing of livelihood assets to meet food and non‑food needs. This is most pronounced in the insurgency‑affected states, where four LGAs in Adamawa, 13 in Borno and 10 in Yobe are affected.
The nutrition situation, based on the IPC acute malnutrition projection for January–April 2023 covering Adamawa, Borno, Yobe (North‑East) and Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara (North‑West), shows a prevalence of crisis‑to‑worse nutrition conditions across these states. The March 2023 CH analysis encompassed 26 states—Abia, Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara—and the Federal Capital Territory.
The report recommends that the government and humanitarian community sustain life‑saving interventions, including food assistance and unconditional cash transfers (social welfare packages), for vulnerable populations in the affected areas.
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