The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) disclosed on Friday that about 109 deaths recorded in Nigeria between January and March 10, 2023 were linked to the conduct of the 2023 general elections. The organisation warned that, without appropriate measures, Saturday’s governorship and State House of Assembly elections could also be plagued by violence. According to the CDD, electoral violence may manifest as voter intimidation, ballot‑box snatching and the destruction of election materials. Prof. Adele Jinadu, chair of the CDD Election Analysis Centre, and Director Idayat Hassan made these statements during a briefing at the opening of the EAC in Abuja.
While noting that new governors will emerge in 17 states—because term‑limited incumbents are ineligible to stand—the think‑tank stressed that these keen contests are likely hotspots for election violence. The CDD identified Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Delta and Anambra as the states with the most incidents of political violence since January 1, 2023, according to the Nigeria Election Violence Tracker, with Kano recording the highest number of deaths at 20. Osun, Imo and Ebonyi have also experienced a number of incidents in the past three months that could disrupt their state‑house‑of‑assembly polls. In total, the tracker recorded 109 deaths linked to political violence from the start of the year to March 10.
Based on its mapping, the CDD warned that violence could worsen due to the activities of armed groups’ quasi‑security outfits. Groups such as Yan Sakai, the Civilian Joint Task Force, Neighbourhood Watch, Amotekun and Ebubeagu have been, and can be, armed and deployed by state governors and their allies to perpetrate electoral violence or suppress voter turnout, especially in areas with strong opposition support. In addition, the presence of conventional political thugs—paid to disrupt polls or intimidate opponents—poses a further threat. The insecurity they generate endangers the credibility of elections, raises the likelihood of inconclusive results, and may necessitate supplementary elections. Bauchi, Kano, Rivers and Sokoto experienced similar scenarios in 2019, and the CDD sees a high risk of recurrence in 2023.
The CDD urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to apply lessons learned from the presidential poll held on February 25 to improve the conduct of the state elections. Because the polls were delayed a week to allow INEC to reconfigure the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices, the commission now has sufficient time to address earlier flaws. The think‑tank expressed hope that this extra time will lead to a smoother opening of polling units nationwide, with all units fully equipped to avoid the extended voting periods observed in the presidential election. Functional BVAS machines and better use of the INEC Results Viewing platform are also deemed critical for poll credibility. To prevent repeat breaches, the CDD called on INEC to reprimand and suspend officials colluding with political actors and to support the cancellation of compromised polling units. It also urged INEC to avoid prolonged periods of silence, which can fuel misinformation and disinformation.
Regarding election outcomes, the CDD noted that many political parties and online commentators have mistakenly projected governorship results that mirror the February 25 presidential results. These projections fail to account for the Senate and House of Representatives outcomes, which did not always align with the presidential vote. Given the split‑voting pattern evident in the presidential election, experts emphasized that political actors should not base expectations on overly optimistic assumptions. After the February 25 elections, eleven states elected a majority of their national‑assembly delegations from an opposition party different from the presidential winner; nine of those eleven states will be electing governors tomorrow. A nuanced analysis, the CDD said, will provide a better understanding of how the results might unfold.
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