President Kaïs Saied’s attempt to scapegoat Black migrants is costing Tunisia socially, economically, and diplomatically. In a February 21 national security council address, Saied accused Sub‑Saharan African immigrants of fostering “violence, crime and unacceptable practices.” Drawing on rhetoric reminiscent of Western far‑right conspiracy theories, he denounced “hordes of immigrants” he suspected of being part of a “plan” to disrupt Tunisia’s demographic composition and alter the country’s identity. Ironically, North‑African— including Tunisian— migrants are routinely the targets of such discourse in Europe.
Saied’s comments unleashed a wave of racist violence across the country, exposing Black residents to abuse and public vindictiveness. In response, the governments of Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Burkina Faso organized evacuations of their citizens from Tunisia. Homeowners unilaterally evicted Sub‑Saharan tenants, throwing entire families onto the streets. Employers laid off already underpaid Black workers, often illegally withholding outstanding wages. Migrant communities have since reported record levels of verbal and physical abuse, sometimes captured in videos that went viral on social media.
Once marginal on the political scene, a rising nationalist discourse that conflates xenophobia with patriotism has recently gained traction in the national media, extending its audience and influence. Saied’s remarks provided further validation. While some anti‑racist movements condemned the president’s statements, the episode also revealed the depth of underlying racism in Tunisia. The country has long struggled with a mixed heritage of African and Arab‑Berber culture, downplaying a history of slavery that still underpins social representations of dark‑skinned communities. Anti‑racist activists who proposed a provision on the matter during the drafting of a new constitution after the 2011 revolution were accused of “trying to create a problem that doesn’t exist.”
Migrants aside, an estimated 10 % to 15 % of Tunisians are Black. They form a sizeable minority that has long experienced marginalisation and systemic belittling. A 2018 anti‑racism law—an innovation in North Africa—allowed Black Tunisians to remove “atig” from their names, a prefix signalling filiation with enslaved ancestors. However, an economic crisis and rising populism have made it difficult for the legislation to bear fruit and change mindsets; some now openly call for its abrogation.
Since the 2011 removal of former dictator Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in a popular uprising that sparked the Arab Spring, institutional instability and COVID‑19 have weakened the economy. Public debt now stands at 89 % of GDP, inflation is rampant, the currency continues to lose value, and unemployment—especially among youth—is high, reflecting a dire situation and widespread social despair. *The Economist* cites a survey by a pro‑business think‑tank that found 71 % of public‑university graduates want to emigrate; the proportion is probably even higher among less‑educated youth. In 2023, about 18 000 Tunisians crossed to Italy—almost seven times more than the 2 600 who did in 2019, when Saied assumed office.
Scapegoating Sub‑Saharan Africans for Tunisia’s hardships will not solve the country’s economic slump. Amid protracted job and food‑staple shortages, blaming Black migrants is a convenient diversion for leaders short of solutions, but it lacks evidence. While a popular narrative claims that over one million Sub‑Saharan migrants are jamming the job market, specialised organisations cite only 50 000 to 60 000, of whom about 21 000 are thought to lack documentation. Most migrants work in low‑pay, labour‑intensive jobs such as construction or housework. They tell journalists and researchers that a dysfunctional administration and cumulative financial penalties make obtaining proper paperwork nearly impossible.
Consistent democratic backsliding over the past few years has not restored hope or eased social tensions. Since July 2021, Saied has methodically dismantled the country’s hard‑fought‑for democracy: he suspended Parliament, sent army tanks to bar its access, and gave himself power to rule through executive orders. A constitutional lawyer by profession, he siphoned judicial authority to consolidate his own. Most recently, Saied cracked down on critics in a series of politically motivated arrests targeting rival politicians, sceptical entrepreneurs and non‑submissive journalists. That he would now undermine recent anti‑racism gains is therefore unsurprising.
The demonisation of North‑African migration under European policy impulses is reflected in Saied’s comments. Scapegoating Sub‑Saharan Africans will not solve Tunisia’s economic slump; in fact, it could backfire. Key financial partners have condemned Tunisia’s xenophobic turn, halting economic partnerships. In early March, World Bank chief David Malpass ordered a suspension of cooperation with Tunisia on ethical grounds, citing the country’s racist drift. The decision followed Tunisia’s failed negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which recently halted a US $1.9 billion loan under discussion. The country now faces liquidity risks unless it undertakes major reforms.
Civil society and economic operators in West Africa and beyond have called for boycotts of Tunisian products. Although Sub‑Saharan Africa accounts for only about 3 % of Tunisian exports, the symbolic significance is clear. Further deterioration in Tunisia’s economic, financial and diplomatic posture is the last thing the country needs. Authorities have back‑pedaled on their initial statements, but repairing relations with Sub‑Saharan Africa will require more than denials and Pan‑African lip‑service. Tunisia must recognise its rich, multifaceted heritage as a strength, not a stumbling block, and confront the normalised racism that pervades society. The remnants of its once‑vibrant civil society and democratic movement still fight for an honest, value‑based conversation, but activists need support in the face of rising authoritarianism. International human‑rights defenders and donors should provide assistance and funding as required. Nationalist discourse that condemns foreign funding makes external support both harder and more necessary than ever.
Saied’s triggering comments and the public hatred they released also reflect a policy agenda that has demonised migration in North Africa for years under the impulse of European migration policies. Tunisia’s Global‑North partners—especially “Fortress Europe”—should learn from this episode.
*Ornella Moderan, Consultant, ISS Pretoria*
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