For the second time in less than a week, Dele Momodu, the Director of Strategic Communications for the Peoples Democratic Party Presidential Campaign Council, asserted that the party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, will be elected President of Nigeria in the upcoming election next month. In a statement released on Monday, Momodu dismissed recent polls conducted by various surveying agencies that predicted victories for either Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress or Peter Obi of the Labour Party. He expressed his bemusement at these polls, concluding that they have failed significantly due to an over-reliance on technology in a largely illiterate population.
Momodu emphasized the importance of understanding Nigeria’s political history and empirical data when forecasting election outcomes. He noted that a presidential candidate cannot rely solely on votes from outside their home base to secure victory. Historically, when the South has produced two strong candidates, the dominant northern candidate has prevailed, as seen in the elections of 1979 and 1983, where Obafemi Awolowo and Nnamdi Azikiwe faced Shehu Shagari. He argued that Tinubu is currently weaker in the South-West compared to Awolowo, while Obi represents a new Azikiwe in the South-East, and Kwankwaso is akin to the current Aminu Kano.
According to Momodu, Atiku will dominate the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and South-South regions. While Tinubu may secure a few states in the North and South-West, he will not garner enough support to win the election. Momodu stated that Atiku has spent 30 years building the necessary bridges for victory, whereas Tinubu has not been able to consolidate support across the entire South-West or Nigeria as a whole. He warned that over-reliance on bribing the electorate and rigging the election would ultimately fail.
Momodu reiterated that Atiku would emerge as the next President, asserting that he would be competitive in both the South-East and South-West. He predicted that wherever Obi leads in the East, Atiku would follow closely, and the same would apply in the South-West with Tinubu. He expressed confidence that Atiku would be the first candidate to achieve 25 percent of the vote in 24 states, automatically securing this percentage in the 19 northern states and six in the South-South. Additionally, he anticipated that Atiku would achieve 25 percent in all five states of the South-East, a traditional base for the PDP.
Momodu noted the increasing ethnic divisions in Nigeria, suggesting that voters would largely align their choices along ethnic lines and primordial sentiments. He argued that the North would not support a “fake Muslim” under a perceived Muslim/Muslim ticket, declaring that this strategy is doomed to fail. He further justified his position by stating that the North-East would not settle for a number two position, having pursued the top position since 1966. He added that the North-West would not abandon Atiku for Tinubu, who has maintained a strong grip on Lagos State since 1999.
In his analysis of the South-West, Momodu claimed that the region recognizes it has the weakest candidate in this race and would accept this reality. He also suggested that the South-East would realize that Obi’s popularity alone would not be sufficient to secure victory, leading many traditional voters to support Atiku and his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa, whom he described as a cerebral man of Igbo ancestry. In conclusion, Momodu predicted that Atiku would become the next President, citing him as the most prepared and experienced candidate ready to govern from day one. He assured that Nigerians would witness significant political activity in the days ahead.
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