Nigeria lost about N500 billion in revenue in January because crude oil production fell short of expectations, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon, a firm that tracks export flows. The country exported 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), well below the 1.6 mb/d quota assigned by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This level of export amounted to 37.2 million barrels for the month, versus the 49.6 million barrels that would have been shipped if the quota had been met.
Nigeria’s flagship crude, Bonny Light, sold for $89 per barrel in January—$1 above Brent, which was priced at $88 per barrel. At the actual export level, the nation may have earned roughly N1.5 trillion from the 37.2 million barrels shipped, compared with an expected N2 trillion had it reached the OPEC target. The shortfall therefore represents a loss of approximately N500 billion.
Nigeria was not the only producer missing its OPEC quota. Refinitiv Eikon data also showed a decline in Iraqi exports due to reduced output from its southern fields, while Saudi Arabia was reported by some sources to have trimmed shipments. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates increased output by about 10,000 bpd. Among the three OPEC‑exempt producers—Libya, Iran and Venezuela—Venezuela’s output rose slightly, Iran saw a modest decline after a surge in December exports, and Libya’s figures were unchanged. Overall OPEC production fell to 28.87 million barrels per day, down 50,000 bpd from December, after reaching a September peak not seen since 2020.
In November, OPEC called for a 2 million‑bpd cut to the OPEC+ output target, with about 1.27 million bpd to be supplied by the ten participating OPEC members. Those ten countries actually cut 920,000 bpd below the group’s January target, while the shortfall in December was 780,000 bpd. Compliance with the agreed cuts rose to 172 % of the pledged reductions in January, up from 161 % in December.
Both Nigeria and Angola were reported to lack the capacity to meet the agreed production levels. Nigeria’s state‑owned oil firm, NNPC, attributed the low output to crude theft resulting from pipeline vandalism. Group Chief Executive Officer Mele Kyari claimed that as much as 900,000 barrels per day were being lost to theft. A separate report documented an 83 % decline in Nigeria’s oil exports over a ten‑year period from 2012 to 2021. OPEC data showed production dropping to around 900,000 bpd in September, but by December Chief Upstream Investment Officer Bala Wunti of NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services said output had recovered to about 1.6 mb/d. “Crude theft affects every part of the architecture that funds the country. When oil theft peaked, everything—including gas production—was affected,” he explained.
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