The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its annual World Trade Report, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to boost the value of global trade. According to the report, AI could increase the value of global trade by nearly 40 percent by 2040, driven by cost reductions and productivity gains. WTO Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala noted that AI holds significant promise for trade growth, particularly in lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services. The WTO’s simulations suggest that AI could raise exports of goods and services by almost 40 percent above current trends.
However, the organization warned that the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed. Lower‑income countries could miss out on opportunities if they do not adopt appropriate policies. Okonjo‑Iweala emphasized that the key question is whether AI will create opportunities for all or exacerbate existing inequalities and exclusion. The report found that if lower‑income economies fail to bridge the digital divide, they may see only an 8 percent gain in incomes by 2040, compared with a 14 percent gain in higher‑income economies. Conversely, if these countries narrow the digital‑infrastructure gap by 50 percent and adopt AI more widely, they could match the gains of higher‑income nations. Okonjo‑Iweala stressed that, with the right combination of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can generate new growth opportunities in all economies.
Despite the potential benefits, the WTO also noted that countries are increasingly imposing restrictions on the trade of AI‑related goods. In 2022, nearly 500 restrictions were in place, primarily imposed by higher‑ and medium‑income economies, a sharp rise from the 130 restrictions recorded in 2012. The report underscores the need for careful consideration of AI’s impact on global trade and the importance of developing policies that promote inclusivity and growth.
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