Nigeria is poised to increase its gas exports following the European Union’s ban on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. The EU’s decision, which takes effect on 1 January 2027, is part of its effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy. Although the bloc has already cut its reliance on Russian energy by 90 % since 2022, it still imported over €11 billion worth of Russian energy this year.
According to Reuters, the EU will be able to replace Russian LNG imports with alternative supplies from 2027 without major price shocks. This confidence stems from an anticipated boom in LNG projects in the United States, Qatar, Nigeria and other countries. The global LNG market is expected to add about 161 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to export capacity by 2027. The United States will lead the expansion, contributing more than 50 mtpa and cementing its position as the top exporter. Qatar is set to increase its capacity by roughly 31 mtpa through the North Field expansion, while Canada and Nigeria will also launch new projects.
Nigeria’s main operator, Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), currently has a production capacity of 22 mtpa and is expanding with the Train 7 project, which will raise capacity to approximately 30 mtpa upon completion. The country already serves a diversified customer base across Europe and Asia, with key markets including Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Turkey, China and India. As the EU bans Russian LNG, global trade flows are expected to shift, with Russian cargoes likely moving toward Asia. However, European and Asian prices could rise if Russia is unable to sell significant volumes in Asia due to sanctions and the reluctance of Asian buyers to import Russian LNG.
In summary, Nigeria’s gas export industry stands to benefit from the EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports. The country is well positioned to increase its exports and meet the growing demand for alternative energy sources, playing a key role in the expected growth of the global LNG market in the coming years.
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