The UK is expected to experience sluggish economic growth, trailing most G7 nations, according to a recent analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The think‑tank’s World Economic League Table predicts that the UK will fall from 19th to 22nd in global GDP‑per‑capita rankings by 2030, being overtaken by Hong Kong, Finland and the UAE. By 2035, British living standards are forecast to decline further, slipping behind those of Malta.
The CEBR report attributes this decline to high inflation and low growth, which will continue to erode living standards in the UK. Over the next five years, the country’s GDP‑per‑capita growth is expected to be the second‑weakest in the G7, with only Japan performing worse. In dollar terms, UK GDP‑per‑capita is projected to reach $58,775 next year.
CEBR economist Pushpin Singh cites a “triple challenge” facing the UK: high inflation, high debt and low growth. Competitiveness is being undermined by rival nations with lower taxes and lighter regulation, while the UK struggles to reduce state spending. The report notes that the UK economy grew by only 1.4 % in 2025, and an average annual growth rate of around 1.5 % is projected for the coming years. The Labour government, which marked its first full year in office in 2025, has achieved limited success in boosting growth, according to the analysis.
The outlook remains uncertain, with Singh warning that Britain is “still very much living off its past glories.” The ongoing cost‑of‑living crisis continues to affect households, as real disposable income per head has yet to recover to pre‑pandemic levels. The CEBR forecast highlights the need for the UK to address its economic challenges and improve competitiveness to avoid falling further behind its peers. With growth expected to remain sluggish, policymakers will need to consider strategies to boost growth and improve living standards, while international observers watch the UK’s position in the global economy closely.
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