Nigeria Petrol Imports Dominate Supply Amid Refinery Output

Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol persisted from November 2024 through November 2025, despite contributions from the Dangote Refinery, according to an analysis of data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Over the 13‑month period the country imported an estimated 12.96 billion litres of petrol, while local refineries supplied about 7.39 billion litres, yielding a total petrol availability of roughly 20.35 billion litres. Imported petrol accounted for approximately 63.7 % of total supply, with domestic production covering around 36.3 %, underscoring Nigeria’s continued exposure to external supply chains and foreign‑exchange pressures.

The analysis was based on monthly average daily supply figures converted into total monthly volumes, providing a comprehensive overview of imports and domestic production. In the early months, imports dominated consumption. For example, in November 2024 imports represented about 66.8 % of total supply, while domestic refineries supplied roughly 33.2 %. By January 2025, local refineries contributed an estimated 592 million litres, raising their share to 43.6 % and reducing imports to 56.4 %. The following months saw fluctuations, with local production reaching its highest monthly contribution in February 2025 at 47.4 % of total supply.

However, the gains recorded in the first quarter of 2025 proved difficult to sustain. Imports again dominated supply in subsequent months, and domestic output fell to 32.4 % in May 2025. A modest recovery in the domestic share occurred in August and September 2025, but the period closed with a dramatic spike in November 2025. Total supply surged to roughly 2.15 billion litres, with imports accounting for 72.8 % of the total.

The data indicate that, while domestic refining capacity was able to meet as much as 47 % of national petrol demand at its peak, Nigeria has not yet achieved a stable transition away from imports. Heavy reliance on imported petrol continues to expose the economy to foreign‑exchange volatility, logistics risks, and global price shocks. Sustaining and scaling domestic refining output is crucial for energy security. The Nigerian government and stakeholders must prioritize investments in local refining capacity to reduce dependence on imported fuel and mitigate the associated risks.