The failure of opposition parties to unite against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may have helped secure the victory of the APC’s candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, in the February 25, 2023 presidential election, writes Leke Baiyewu. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner, a result that has sparked protests, criticism, and legal challenges from opposition candidates. Two challengers have already taken the matter to court, contesting the electoral process that delivered Tinubu’s win.
Tinubu’s victory extends the APC’s hold on power for another term, bringing the party’s total governance to 12 years. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) previously ruled for 16 years, from 1999 to 2015. To defeat the PDP, several parties and factions merged in 2013 to form the APC, including the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change, All Nigeria Peoples’ Party, a splinter of the PDP known as “New PDP,” and a faction of the All Progressives’ Grand Alliance. This coalition proved strong enough to unseat the PDP in 2015. In the 2023 election, however, all 18 registered parties fielded their own presidential candidates, dividing the 25.3 million valid votes cast out of 93.5 million registered voters.
Before the election, opposition leaders called for mergers and alliances similar to those before the 2019 poll, urging smaller parties to form a “Third Force” to challenge both the APC and the PDP. Although some parties announced support for leading contenders, their candidates still ran independently and attracted votes. Four candidates emerged as the main contenders: Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Rabi’u Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples’ Party). Observers note that the opposition approached the election as “third forces” rather than a unified third force, resulting in a fragmented vote.
The final tally shows Tinubu winning with 8,794,726 votes, the lowest total for a president since 1999. The other top candidates received 6,984,520 (PDP), 6,101,533 (Labour), and 1,496,687 (NNPP). Had the PDP, Labour, and NNPP formed an alliance, they would have amassed 14,582,740 votes—enough to defeat Tinubu. Moreover, an alliance between at least two of the top contenders, particularly Abubakar and Obi, could have met the constitutional requirement of 25 percent of votes in at least two‑thirds of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Tinubu met this threshold in 29 states; Abubakar in 21; Obi in 16; and Kwankwaso in only one.
All three leading opposition figures have histories with the PDP. Kwankwaso served as PDP governor of Kano State for two terms, later joined the APC, and finally the NNPP. Obi left the PDP for the Labour Party after realizing he would not secure its presidential ticket; he previously governed Anambra State under APGA. Abubakar, a founding PDP member and former vice‑president on its platform, briefly joined the APC before returning to the PDP. Despite these shared backgrounds, their parties pursued individual endorsements rather than a collective strategy.
In February 2022, Kwankwaso announced a “third force” under The National Movement (TNM), joined by Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi, former Minister of Youths and Sports Development Solomon Dalung, and former presidential associate Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retired) Buba Galadima. The TNM pledged to unseat the APC in 2023 and safeguard Nigeria’s unity. In March 2022, the National Consultative Front (NCFront)—a coalition of prominent Nigerian leaders seeking an alternative political platform—clarified that its “third force” was distinct from the NNPP and not built around a single individual. Instead, it aimed to unite various parties, civil‑society groups, labour platforms, and leaders of conscience, including key figures from the #EndSARS movement.
By May 2022, the NCFront adopted the Labour Party as the mega‑party for the “Third Force” ahead of the 2023 elections, following extensive negotiations with labour leaders Ayuba Wabba and Quadri Olaleye. The NCFront urged its 20 million members and supporters nationwide to register as Labour Party members to participate in the electoral process.
Reflecting on the election, Dumebi Kachikwu criticized the fragmented opposition, stating that Tinubu “took advantage of a disunited opposition” and that alleged rigging by the four leading parties was insufficient to change the outcome. He warned that votes for the Labour Party effectively supported an APC victory and lamented the PDP and Labour candidates’ failure to set aside petty differences, calling their post‑election alliance “an alliance of sore losers.”
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