NNPC aims to raise Nigeria’s oil output by approximately 100,000 barrels per day within months, according to Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Bayo Ojulari, despite recent significant production shortfalls against national targets.
Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Ojulari told Reuters that while Nigeria cannot match the capacity of leading OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia, it can still contribute to global supply. “We are building that capacity,” he said, noting the company completed a full portfolio review in 2024 and is now implementing changes to improve project execution and ensure on-time, on-budget delivery after past delays.
The statement contrasts with official data showing Nigeria has underperformed against its fiscal goals. An analysis of figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels for January and February 2026. The country produced 50.5 million barrels in January and 41.6 million in February, totaling 92 million barrels. This fell short of the 108.6 million barrels required to meet the government’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
Daily output averaged 1.63 million bpd in January—210,000 bpd below target—and dropped further to 1.48 million bpd in February, widening the deficit to 360,000 bpd. Crude production, the larger component, declined from an average of 1.46 million bpd in January to 1.31 million bpd in February. Condensate output provided modest support, averaging 116,000 bpd in January and 122,000 bpd in February.
The production gap emerges as global oil prices show volatility, underscoring the revenue potential of higher output. Brent crude rebounded above $100 a barrel following U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on delayed strikes against Iran, though prices later fluctuated. For Nigeria, meeting its production targets could significantly boost earnings amid price strength.
Ojulari’s announcement signals NNPC’s intent to close the gap between actual and target production. The success of its reform agenda will be critical to achieving the stated increase and aligning output with national budgetary requirements.
