Gold prices remained steady on Thursday as markets weighed the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, alongside anticipation of key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $4,721.51 per ounce by 0523 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery slipped 0.7% to $4,744.90. Investors remained cautious, with attention split between geopolitical developments and the upcoming release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for February, due at 1230 GMT. March consumer price figures are also scheduled for release on Friday, offering further clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 17–18 meeting revealed that a growing number of policymakers believed additional interest rate hikes might be necessary to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s 2% target. This stance has weighed on gold, a non-yielding asset, especially as markets reassess the pace of future rate increases.
Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central, told Reuters that gold was likely to consolidate in the near term between $4,607 and $4,860. “It doesn’t seem like gold is looking to do much at this moment. I think there’s still a lot of speculation on what’s going to happen after the ceasefire,” he said.
The cautious sentiment follows a sharp escalation in the Middle East, with Israel launching its heaviest strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday, killing hundreds and prompting a threat of retaliation from Iran. Oil prices rose on Thursday amid concerns that supply from the region may not fully resume if the two-week ceasefire fails to hold.
Gold has fallen more than 10% since the conflict began on February 28, as higher energy prices have stoked inflation fears and prompted markets to adjust interest rate expectations, reducing the metal’s appeal. However, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that gold could regain ground in the coming months, driven by heightened geopolitical risk. “Beyond near-term liquidity needs, we expect gold to continue to rebuild its gains,” they said in a note on Wednesday.
Other precious metals also saw muted movement. Spot silver dipped 0.1% to $74.07 per ounce, platinum lost 0.4% to $2,020.60, and palladium edged up 0.3% to $1,559.
