Israel has extended its military operation into Lebanese territorial waters, raising concerns over Lebanon’s hopes of exploiting offshore gas reserves to address its chronic energy crisis. The move comes despite a 2022 US-mediated maritime border agreement between the two countries, which was largely driven by the prospect of energy resources in the disputed area.
On April 19, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) published a map outlining a “forward defense line area” in southern Lebanon—effectively an occupation zone that Israeli officials say must be depopulated for national security. This claimed area extends into the sea, cutting off a roughly 9 km wide strip of Lebanese territorial waters.
In 2022, negotiations mediated by the United States resolved a long-standing border dispute, enabling Lebanon to explore the Qana area for natural gas while Israel retained rights to part of the nearby Karish field. Lebanon had high hopes that offshore reserves could provide an equivalent of 20 years’ worth of electricity supply.
However, exploration efforts have so far been unsuccessful. A drilling attempt in the Qana area in 2022 yielded no results, and while French energy giant Total—leading Lebanon’s offshore exploration in partnership with Italy’s Eni and QatarEnergy—announced plans in January to focus on Block 8, no significant discoveries have been reported. Only Block 9 lacks 3D seismic data, largely due to the prolonged border dispute.
The latest Israeli military actions further complicate prospects for offshore exploration. Since October 2023, Lebanon has endured extensive damage from Israeli strikes, with over one million people displaced and more than 2,300 reported fatalities since early March. Economic losses have been estimated at $5.1 billion in the first year of the conflict alone, with physical damage exceeding $3.4 billion, according to World Bank figures.
The ongoing hostilities, now intensified by broader regional tensions, cast serious doubt on Lebanon’s ability to attract investment or safely conduct offshore gas exploration in the near future.
