Kenya’s fuel prices remain high despite recent declines in global oil markets, a point underscored by a televised exchange between Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) director Edward Kinyua and former budget‑committee chair Ndindi Nyoro. Both officials cited data that partially supports their arguments but also contain inaccuracies.
Kinyua told viewers on 15 April that the price of crude oil had risen from about $60 per barrel in February 2026 to roughly $101 per barrel, a surge that “has reflected itself in the cargoes we are receiving.” Kenya imports refined petroleum products, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and uses the UAE’s Murban crude as a regional benchmark. Statistics Kenya recorded Murban at $67.90 in February, peaking at $97.99 on 26 March, then falling to $89.61 by 16 April. The OPEC basket, another reference, moved from $64.94 in early February to a high of $146.05 on 19 March before easing to $104.56 on 15 April. The figures confirm an upward trend since February but also show considerable volatility rather than a steady climb, indicating that Kenya’s pump prices are influenced by short‑term fluctuations as well as longer‑term trends.
Nyoro argued that Kenyan motorists are paying more now than they did when global oil prices were higher in 2022. He cited May 2022 crude at about $115 per barrel and claimed that the highest pump prices then were KSh160 for petrol and KSh140 for diesel. While Kenya’s statistics agency reported an average of $113.87 per barrel in May 2022, the maximum retail prices at that time were KSh150.12 for petrol and KSh131 for diesel in Nairobi. Some remote northern towns recorded prices near KSh160, but these were not nationwide levels. Moreover, after President William Ruto removed subsidies in September 2022, pump prices rose to KSh180.05 for petrol and KSh165.91 for diesel even as crude fell to $95.32.
Current figures show a different picture. On 15 April 2026 the OPEC basket stood at $104.56 per barrel, while Murban crude was $97.99. Epra’s revised maximum prices after the VAT cut are KSh197.60 for petrol and KSh196.63 for diesel in Nairobi, with some remote towns reaching KSh219.78. National averages in October 2023—KSh217.97 for petrol and KSh206.21 for diesel—remain higher than today’s levels.
Both speakers are correct that Kenya’s fuel prices are high relative to global crude costs, but each overstated aspects of the record. Kinyua’s statement omitted the price volatility that shapes local pricing, and Nyoro’s claim that 2022 pump prices were the highest ever is inaccurate; the 2023 peaks exceeded those levels. The debate highlights the complexity of Kenya’s fuel‑price formula, which blends international benchmarks, exchange‑rate movements, taxes and subsidies. As global oil markets continue to fluctuate, policymakers will need to balance consumer protection with fiscal sustainability.
