Key members of OPEC+ are preparing a gradual rise in oil production quotas over the coming months, aiming to restore the output that was curtailed last year by September at the latest. The group has already agreed to return roughly two‑thirds of the 1.65 million barrels‑per‑day cut imposed in 2023, with three additional monthly tranches slated to follow.
Despite the agreed schedule, actual gains are limited by ongoing disruptions to Middle‑Eastern supply routes, notably the Strait of Hormuz, where conflict involving Iran has curtailed exports. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the leading voices in the alliance, have continued to signal modest, largely symbolic supply increases while geopolitics and operational constraints keep real output below target levels.
Delegates briefing Bloomberg confirmed that the phased quota restoration will proceed even though several members face infrastructure bottlenecks and export interruptions. The next OPEC+ policy meeting is set for 7 June, when July production figures will be examined and future adjustments decided.
The United Arab Emirates recently left OPEC, reducing the overall size of the original cut agreement. Nevertheless, the remaining members approved a modest increase of 188 000 barrels per day for June at their 3 May meeting. A further increase of 206 000 barrels per day, originally slated for May 2026, was also noted as part of the effort to offset supply shortfalls linked to the regional conflict.
OPEC nations now account for about 40 percent of global crude production, a share that has been gradually declining. The gradual unwind of the 1.65 million‑bpd cut reflects the alliance’s attempt to balance market stability with the realities of disrupted supply lines.
If the scheduled increases are implemented as planned, OPEC+ could restore the full volume of the 2023 cut by September, though actual output may remain below the announced quotas until the security situation stabilises. The outcome will influence global oil prices, which have stayed elevated amid tight supplies, and will be closely watched by markets across Africa and beyond.
