Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are sending shock waves through global food markets, raising concerns that the United‑States‑Israel conflict with Iran could evolve into a wider food‑security crisis. The narrow waterway, which carries about one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil exports, also handles roughly a third of international fertilizer shipments, including urea, potash and phosphates. Interruptions to these flows have already pushed fertilizer prices up by an estimated 80 per cent, and the ripple effect is now being felt in commodity markets far beyond energy.
Potato futures illustrate the emerging pressure. Over the past month, contracts have risen more than 700 per cent, and they are up over 34 per cent year‑on‑year, according to Trading Economics data. Potatoes are a nitrogen‑intensive crop; growers rely heavily on urea and ammonia, both of which are sourced largely through the Hormuz corridor. While analysts stress that the surge in futures does not signal an imminent shortage, it reflects market expectations of higher production costs and weaker harvests if fertilizer supplies remain constrained.
The price spike has immediate implications for processed potato products such as fries, chips and frozen foods, which depend on industrial farming methods and energy‑intensive processing. Europe, which currently enjoys a modest oversupply of potatoes after years of expanded planting, may see retail prices stay relatively stable for now. However, higher fuel costs—driven by increased diesel and gasoline prices as the EU pays more for imported fossil fuels—are raising transportation expenses for all food items, adding pressure to grocery bills.
The Hormuz disruption is not limited to potatoes. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reports that global food prices have risen for three consecutive months, with vegetable‑oil costs reaching their highest level since 2022 and staple grains such as wheat, rice and corn also climbing. Elevated transport and energy costs are the primary drivers, but the threat of prolonged fertilizer shortages could deepen the upward trend.
For wealthier consumers the impact will manifest as modest increases in supermarket prices. In low‑income countries, where a larger share of household spending goes to food, the combined effect of soaring fuel and fertilizer costs could threaten planting decisions, reduce yields and push staple foods beyond affordable reach. The United Nations Development Programme warns that the broader economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could push more than 30 million people into poverty across 162 nations, especially where energy imports are critical.
Industry leaders have sounded alarms. Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of fertilizer producer Yara International, cautioned that the escalating hostilities jeopardise global agricultural production and could spark intense competition for food supplies. Similarly, chef‑activist José Andrés, founder of World Central Kitchen, warned that disrupted fertilizer flows may trigger a prolonged global food crisis, with import‑dependent nations bearing the brunt.
As the situation evolves, markets will continue to price in the risk of further supply‑chain strain. Monitoring of fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, energy price trends and the response of governments to the trade disruptions will be crucial in assessing whether the current price shocks develop into a sustained food‑security challenge.
