How can pumping more money into state and local governments, empowering local authorities to bring financial and political power closer to the people, not count as progress against poverty in Nigeria? How can reports from the IMF and World Bank themselves, showing increased capital spending at the subnational level, fail to register as a reduction in Multidimensional Poverty—a metric that directly measures infrastructure improvements at the community level? And how can these institutions keep judging Nigeria based on a 2022 poverty report, while states have been building infrastructure on the ground ever since?
Social media erupted with pure rage when I recently pointed out that, just a few years ago, many Nigerian states owed civil servants salaries for up to a year—some for 18 months. This was under the PDP governments of Presidents Jonathan and Yar’Adua, and even under President Buhari. I used to wonder how people survived without pay for two months, let alone a year. Those take-home pays couldn’t take anyone home. Yet, Nigerian civil servants endured months of unpaid wages. When I made that post, insults and curses flew in, as they always do. Nigeria has no shortage of social media tigers—many of them cowards in real life—who can type the most despicable things, almost making one give up on humanity. Still, I believe people are good, even if the dark thoughts consuming many Nigerians make you question that.
Thanks to artificial intelligence, research is easier now. I asked Gemini AI how many states owed salaries in 2014. It reported that the Nigeria Labour Congress said 22 states owed salaries for up to six months in 2014, just as President Jonathan’s government was ending. I have nothing against Jonathan; he led during a time of high oil prices. Pundits often praise the economic management of Professor Okonjo-Iweala as coordinating minister. But the AI confirmed the same for 2011: salaries were owed for months, and pensioners were protesting in the streets. That is no longer the case today.
Reasonable commenters on my Facebook page offered excuses. Some complained about the naira’s value, noting it exchanged for 250 to 400 at that time. Others asked about fertilizer or cement prices. But I asked them: how can we talk about the value of nothing? Many states paid half salaries for years. When someone gets zero pay, there’s nothing to compare value with. Zero pay is zero value. Yet Nigerians survived that period, and now we’ve forgotten. Even if we’ve forgotten, should we become violent when reminded? This is the toxic politics some play in this country. They claim to want democracy but act like the most virulent troglodytes.
This fact needs more attention from all lovers of democracy and supporters of the Tinubu administration. We seem to suffer from mass amnesia, and some smart folks are capitalizing on it. How could we forget? Not everyone is a civil servant, that’s true. But when federal, state, and local governments can’t pay, the private sector takes note. Everyone complains about the economy. Even now, when such practices have stopped thanks to Tinubunomics, some private sector bosses—who have raised prices several times—still use the bad economy as an excuse not to pay their employees well. I’ve tried to fight this bad practice. We see CEOs buying big cars, building mansions, riding in private jets, and taking expensive holidays, while treating staff like slaves. Many pay poorly deliberately, and some owe months of salaries as a strategy to keep staff on edge. Imagine being owed nine months of pay but still going to work, hoping ‘oga’ will pay three months’ worth.
When governments stop paying civil servants—even policemen and soldiers were owed in the past—it invites corruption and violent crime. Some policemen have been known to lend their ammunition to the underworld for a fee.
So, I believe the tough reforms of President Tinubu have produced good outcomes. More funds have gone to state and local governments, as should happen in a growing presidential system. Everyone lives in a state or local government. No one lives in the federal government. Even the Federal Capital Territory has its own governor. Shifting more money to subnationals also shifts responsibility for improving lives to that level. And our states are stepping up, according to World Bank and IMF data showing considerable capital spending at subnational levels, outstripping federal spending. I just returned from Ekiti State, where I saw a transformation. A new bridge opened in the busiest part of Ado-Ekiti; a road connecting Ado-Iworoko with the airport at Ijan Ekiti was built. The governor confirmed access roads from Ilawe and Akure axes were fixed. Some of these were federal projects, but Governor Oyebanji gets proactive and settles accounts later. Graphics from the World Bank’s April report show subnational capital spending outstripping federal levels, with Nigerian states spending nearly 60 percent on capital investment.
So, as I was writing this to highlight that just a few years ago we couldn’t pay salaries—a problem that spilled into the private sector—I was sad to see the latest IMF report on Nigeria, which stated that poverty had increased. The report didn’t present elaborate, triangulable research to support this conclusion. It feels like 2007/8, when algorithms misled global financial markets. Could the IMF and World Bank be trapped in confirmation bias on Nigeria, always concluding that poverty can only increase? This needs investigation.
The IMF supported every other government action, then contradicted itself. It said Tinubu got it right on all reforms: the naira, subsidy removal, and tight monetary policy under Yemi Cardoso. The IMF, like the World Bank, recommended steadfastness, urging Tinubu not to waver because reforms are yielding results. I would add that these reforms are building a solid foundation for the economy to soar. But the IMF missed two critical touchpoints: it punctured the reforms by removing the most critical element—buy-in from Nigerians. The entire report was titled and projected around the claim that 63 percent of Nigerians are in poverty. I don’t believe that, and I have my reasons. But almost everyone is blind to anything beyond this poverty claim. There should be a strategy around communicating these things. You can’t support a program and then deflate it every time. This wastes spending in various areas. People’s buy-in, support, understanding, and contribution are priceless and indispensable.
How can increased liquidity at state and local levels, and empowering local governments, not count in reducing poverty? How can reports of more capital spending at subnational levels not count in reducing Multidimensional Poverty, which measures infrastructure close to people? How can the IMF and World Bank judge Nigeria based on a 2022 report when states have built infrastructure since then? The Okeyinmi-Ajilosun Bridge in Ado-Ekiti, which I witnessed, and the Ekiti Knowledge Zone at Ijan Ekiti, are part of the infrastructure reducing Multidimensional Poverty. The Chief Fasoranti Bridge in Akure eases traffic and business for thousands. Across Nigeria, infrastructure is deepening: roads, schools, and refurbishment of over 4,000 Primary Healthcare Centres. Why don’t these projects show in the data? Is it easier, more popular, or more profitable for the media to stick to the story that everything is falling apart? This isn’t fair, hence my need to challenge the narrative. How does the clearing of all salary arrears for government workers through policies hailed by the IMF and World Bank not lead to less poverty? How does the fall in headline inflation and food prices throughout 2025 not show as an improvement in poverty indices? How do consistent bumper harvests in 2023, 2024, and 2025 not show up in reduced poverty? Or the naira gaining value against the dollar since 2024? Why aren’t we calling for a new Multidimensional Poverty Report since 2022, pricing in all the local infrastructure governors have built, including federal infrastructure under President Tinubu? I humbly call for a review of our powerful multilateral lenders. They hurt us and set us back too often.
The IMF also called for caution in the $5 billion swap deal with First Abu Dhabi Bank, suggesting Nigeria bridge funding gaps with expensive Eurobonds. The Fund also recommended cash transfers, which I humbly disagree with—not because people can’t use cash, but because of the boobytraps involved. I suggest Nigeria pass such money through agriculture to capacitate food production, replicating what the Americans did with food stamps (the SNAP program), rather than pushing cash into the system with its inflationary effect.
I’ve cautioned in the media that we should not use Nigeria’s poverty issues as a constant weapon, a blunt instrument that only worsens the problem. Everyone with a platform likes to chime in about poverty killing many Nigerians, despite evidence to the contrary. Most of these folks aren’t interested in solving the problem. If the problem disappears—as it surely will if we continue this trajectory—many will lose their platforms and have nothing to discuss. They are invested in ensuring the problem continues, magnified into a monster for them to maintain relevance, depress Nigerians every evening, and twist the knife in the wounds of the poor. I’ve listed in previous articles many behaviors that make me doubt the mass and increasing poverty hypothesis. I also examined these issues through the prism of inequality or informality. I urge those genuinely interested in solving this problem to open their minds to other possibilities. Economic issues cannot be solved with one-track thinking.
I conclude by bringing attention to the data problem. Or rather, the data opportunity. Data will make or mar a nation’s journey to greatness. All levels of government and the private sector must take data seriously. Data isn’t just figures; it’s any information that can be captured and stored: numbers, pictures, words, metadata like likes and emojis on social media. Developing a data mindset means understanding documentation and safe storage. Today’s world-beaters are those who understand this and end up selling synthesized, valuable information after processing and mining data in their custody. That’s why it’s dangerous to source our data from outside or not process and store our own. Funding data gathering, capture, cleansing, storage, and analytics is a major priority in this age of Big Data, AI, Robotics, and the Internet of Everything. On a macro level, India has shown what can be achieved with a strong stance on self-owned data. India is officially the world’s fourth largest economy, fourth most income-equal nation, and is posting the right numbers on poverty reduction and economic growth. The turning point for India depends on street smarts, diplomacy, and data sovereignty. China guards its data with its life, strategically releasing only what keeps the country exactly where its leaders want it in the world’s mind.
