Despite the promise of technology and new legislation, Nigeria’s tightly contested elections have deepened mistrust and exposed widening divides. In previous elections, votes were largely split between two parties—the APC of outgoing President Buhari and the PDP, which held power from 1999 to 2015. This time, the 25 February vote produced four different presidential candidates winning majorities at the state level. President‑elect Bola Tinubu received the fewest votes and the lowest winning percentage of any victor in the Fourth Republic, securing only 36.6 % of the total votes cast. The runners‑up have already begun legal challenges to his win. This increasingly fractured electoral landscape illustrates the extent of Nigeria’s political divisions and makes assessing the accuracy of results announced by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) exceptionally difficult. Even attempting to review the performance of the electoral body can trigger accusations of “endorsing results.”
Preliminary analysis by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) identified six key issues—identity, insecurity, institutions, information disorder, inter‑ and intra‑party squabbles, and inducements—that shaped the elections. Trust and turnout emerged as the biggest stories in the post‑election review. The major institution charged with overseeing the presidential election was INEC, which received about $2 billion in resources for this vote. Nevertheless, it faces questions over logistical shortcomings and technology failures, notably challenges with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the limited functionality of the INEC results‑viewing portal (IReV). IReV was intended to improve transparency by displaying digital copies of result sheets from nearly 180,000 polling units once signed. Data on the portal remained incomplete even when the winner was announced, fueling rumors of electoral malfeasance on social media and deepening mistrust. The fact that results did not align with opinion polls—most of which predicted a win for Labour Party’s Peter Obi—added to calls for a reconduction of the process, including endorsements from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who had backed Obi. While INEC and its technology are not solely responsible for the crisis of confidence, political parties also contributed to the problem.
Political parties engaged in vote‑buying, documented by a 2022 Chatham House report, which tarnishes the legitimacy of their victories. Some parties used control of state governments to conduct targeted voter suppression and intimidation, with incidents of violence against voters reported nationwide. Such tactics have a long track record in Nigeria. The technological innovations introduced by INEC had been heralded as “game changers” after successful deployment during the off‑cycle gubernatorial elections in 2022 (Ekiti and Osun), raising popular hopes for a clean process. Their failure to meet these lofty expectations may have done more harm than good.
Violence and intimidation also depressed voter turnout, compounded by fuel and cash shortages that hampered preparations. Engagement appeared strong in the run‑up to the election, especially among young people who comprised more than 70 % of the nine‑million‑plus new voters added to the register before 2023. However, with the unprecedented division of votes among four leading candidates, President‑elect Tinubu’s mandate would derive from less than 10 % of Nigeria’s electorate. Of the 93.5 million registered voters, only 87.3 million had collected permanent voter cards on election day, and less than a third of them ultimately cast a ballot. Overall turnout was just 27 %, a record low.
The geographic distribution of votes highlights the growing salience of ethno‑religious identities in Nigerian politics. Previously, voting patterns were defined by cross‑cutting identity markers—particularly generational lines, with younger and older voters favoring different candidates. In 2023, those who turned out were concentrated in the “home” communities of the leading candidates. This trend, if confirmed by the courts, underscores a worrying shift that both the government and the political class must reflect upon. There is an urgent need to improve the quality and relevance of Nigerian democracy.
Dr Alex Vines OBE
Managing Director, Ethics, Risk and Resilience; Director, Africa Programme
Comments are closed for this story.