Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election places African countries at a critical crossroads, as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire next year.
The renewal of this US-Africa trade pact, which has granted African exports duty-free, quota-free access to the U.S. market, faces significant challenges under a Trump administration. Historically, Trump has demanded increased market access for U.S. goods in exchange for trade benefits, a stance that may impact African nations relying on AGOA’s provisions.
Trump’s emphasis on “reciprocity” in trade means African countries could be required to open their markets to more American goods to continue benefiting from AGOA. This move, if implemented, could flood African markets with cheap U.S. goods, potentially undermining local industries.
This trade shift could create difficult choices for African nations, as they seek to balance the protection of domestic industries with the economic opportunities provided by AGOA. A notable example from Trump’s previous term was the 2018 suspension of Rwanda’s eligibility to export clothing duty-free to the U.S. under AGOA after the East African nation imposed a ban on second-hand clothing imports. Rwanda’s decision was part of a broader East African Community (EAC) initiative aimed at reducing used-clothing imports to support local textile manufacturing. However, the U.S. used-clothing industry, backed by the Secondary Materials and Recycled Textiles Association (SMRTA), fought back, claiming that the ban would result in significant losses for American businesses.
This conflict led to a threat from Trump’s administration to remove Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania from AGOA eligibility, forcing all but Rwanda to abandon the initiative. This stymied the EAC’s push to grow its local textile industries, showing the complexities of AGOA’s role in fostering African economic development.
With nearly 39 African countries eligible for AGOA’s benefits, the stakes are high. If Trump’s administration continues with its focus on trade reciprocity, African nations may have to adjust their strategies for accessing one of their most important export markets. As the expiration of AGOA looms, the future of this pivotal trade agreement will likely depend on how Africa responds to Trump’s trade policies in the coming months.