The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its annual World Trade Report, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to boost the value of global trade. According to the report, AI could increase the value of global trade by nearly 40 percent by 2040, driven by cost reductions and productivity gains. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that AI holds significant promise for trade growth, particularly in lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services.
The WTO’s simulations suggest that AI could increase exports of goods and services by almost 40 percent above current trends. However, the organization also warned that the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed, and that lower-income countries may miss out on opportunities if they do not adopt proper policies. Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the key question is whether AI will create opportunities for all, or exacerbate existing inequalities and exclusion.
The report found that if lower-income economies fail to bridge the digital divide, they may only see an 8 percent gain in incomes by 2040, compared to a 14 percent gain in higher-income economies. However, if these countries can narrow the digital infrastructure gap by 50 percent and adopt AI more widely, they may be able to match the gains of higher-income countries. Okonjo-Iweala stressed that with the right combination of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies.
Despite the potential benefits of AI, the WTO also noted that countries are increasingly applying restrictions on the trade of AI-related goods. In 2022, nearly 500 restrictions were in place, primarily imposed by higher- and medium-income economies. This represents a significant increase from 2012, when there were only 130 such restrictions. The WTO’s report highlights the need for careful consideration of the potential impacts of AI on global trade, and the importance of developing policies that promote inclusivity and growth.
