OPEC+ is expected to approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting on October 5. This move is driven by rising oil prices, which have encouraged the group to try to regain market share. According to three market sources quoted by Reuters, the new increase is a continuation of OPEC+’s strategy reversal from April, when it started raising quotas to boost market share.
OPEC+ has already increased production by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, representing about 2.4% of global demand. This move was partly in response to pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices. The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies, pumps approximately half of the world’s oil.
Oil prices have fallen from over $80 per barrel at the start of the year but have mostly traded in a narrow range of $60-$70 per barrel since OPEC began production increases in April. However, on Friday, prices rose to their highest since August 1, hitting levels above $70 per barrel, supported by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
The group’s total output reductions, which peaked at 5.85 million barrels per day, are being gradually unwound. The eight producers plan to fully remove one element of those cuts by the end of September and have started removing a second layer in October. OPEC+ also gave the United Arab Emirates approval to boost production by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September.
The November increase, to be discussed on October 5, is expected to be at least 137,000 barrels per day, equal to the October hike. While a final decision has not been made, analysts have noted that OPEC+ hikes have fallen short of pledged amounts because most members are pumping at capacity.
The expected production increase comes as oil prices continue to fluctuate in response to global events. The meeting on October 5 will determine the next steps for OPEC+, which will likely have a significant impact on the global oil market. With oil prices sensitive to changes in production and global demand, the outcome of the meeting will be closely watched by industry experts and investors.