The resignation of Bronwyn Barnes as CEO of Ivanhoe Atlantic has cast significant doubt on the future of a major U.S.-backed iron ore project linking Guinea and Liberia, raising questions about the viability of a $1.8 billion cross-border rail agreement signed with the Liberian government earlier this year.
Barnes, who served as the project’s primary political and diplomatic liaison, departed after the Liberian Senate approved a concession and access agreement for the Yekepa-Buchanan railway. Her exit follows persistent challenges over rail access and unresolved export authorizations from Guinea.
Central to the project’s uncertainty is access to the existing railway operated by ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML). While Liberia’s legislature approved a multi-user rail framework, analysts note no enforceable agreement guarantees capacity for Ivanhoe’s ore, especially as AML expands its own operations. The situation is complicated by a 2020 Guinean mining convention and a bilateral Liberia-Guinea treaty that require joint government approval for infrastructure use.
A Liberian Senate committee reviewing the deal found no evidence of formal engagement with Guinea since 2021, nor the establishment of treaty-mandated joint committees to oversee the project. The committee warned the agreement risked non-compliance with the binding Liberia-Guinea Implementation Agreement. Despite these findings, the Senate passed the deal.
Guinea’s own infrastructure strategy further undermines the plan. The country is advancing its Simandou project with a Chinese-backed railway to a new port, signaling a clear preference for exporting via its own facilities. This direction contradicts Ivanhoe’s reliance on Liberian transit and suggests Guinea is unlikely to authorize additional exports through Buchanan.
Without confirmed rail capacity in Liberia and explicit, current approval from Guinea, Ivanhoe Atlantic lacks a viable export route. The project’s collapse would represent a setback for Liberia’s ambitions to become a regional logistics hub and could affect investor confidence in the country’s ability to implement large-scale infrastructure deals. The company and the Liberian government now face the task of reconciling their agreement with on-the-ground political and logistical realities in both nations.
