The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday that it will exit the OPEC+ alliance on 1 May, a move that comes as energy prices climb amid the ongoing Middle‑East conflict. The decision triggered an immediate reaction in the oil market, extending a multi‑day rally.
Brent crude futures for June rose 1 % to $112.37 a barrel at 06:47 GMT, marking an eighth consecutive day of gains. The more actively traded July contract posted a 0.88 % increase to $105.32. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) June futures lifted 0.51 % to $100.44 a barrel after a 3.7 % jump in the previous session, advancing for seven of the last eight trading days.
The UAE is the fourth‑largest producer within OPEC+, a grouping that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten non‑member partners such as Russia. In 2023 the alliance supplied almost half of global oil and oil‑liquids, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The UAE’s departure represents the most significant exit in recent years; Angola left OPEC in early 2024, while Ecuador and Qatar withdrew in 2020 and 2019 respectively.
Formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, OPEC now comprises 12 member states, predominantly from the Middle East. The UAE joined the organisation in 1967. In 2016 OPEC broadened its influence by creating OPEC+, partnering with ten non‑member producers to coordinate output cuts and increases. By 2025 the combined output of OPEC+ accounted for roughly 51 million barrels per day, close to 50 % of world oil‑liquids production; this share fell to about 44 % after the war in Iran began in March.
Before the U.S.–Iran conflict that started in February 2024, the UAE produced approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, with spare capacity of up to 5 million barrels. Gulf OPEC+ output declined by nearly 8 million barrels per day in March as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq reduced production. Export routes include a 7 million‑barrel‑per‑day pipeline from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and a 1.5‑to‑1.8 million‑barrel‑per‑day pipeline from the UAE to the port of Fujairah.
OPEC+ maintains that production adjustments are intended to stabilise markets, while critics accuse the group of price manipulation. Historically, OPEC’s 1973 oil embargo against the United States and other supporters of Israel caused a sharp rise in global oil prices and contributed to an economic slowdown.
The UAE’s exit will reduce OPEC+ output capacity and may influence future price dynamics as the market adjusts to the loss of one of its major producers. The alliance will need to reassess its production strategy ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for later this year.
