A large crude‑oil short position was placed shortly before reports that the United States and Iran were close to a cease‑fire agreement, prompting allegations of insider trading.
Around 03:40 a.m. (07:40 GMT) on Wednesday, traders on the Kobeissi Letter platform recorded roughly 10,000 short contracts on Brent crude, valued at about $920 million. The size of the bet was described as “unusually large for that hour” and was made without any accompanying news.
At 04:50 a.m., Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the hostilities in the region. Within two hours, oil prices fell more than 12 percent, turning the short position into an estimated $125 million profit before the market later recovered.
The episode follows a series of similarly timed trades linked to developments in the US‑Iran conflict. The Guardian cited more than $1 billion in wagers placed on outcomes such as US strikes on Iran and a cease‑fire announcement, including an $850,000 bet placed minutes before the strikes and roughly $950 million in oil‑future contracts placed hours before the cease‑fire was announced in April.
The Associated Press reported that the cease‑fire announcement generated over 413 million predictions and more than $100 million in wagers across prediction‑market platforms within days.
On 24 March, the White House reportedly warned staff against using insider information related to the Iran war for financial trading. The warning followed President Donald Trump’s order for a five‑day pause in planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Market data released later showed a surge in futures trading about 15 minutes before the policy shift was announced; more than $760 million in oil‑futures contracts changed hands in under two minutes.
Polymarket, a prediction‑market platform, was cited in several reports as having three accounts that collectively earned over $600 000 by correctly timing the cease‑fire.
Regulators have not yet confirmed any wrongdoing, but the timing of the trades has intensified calls for closer scrutiny of market activity surrounding geopolitical events. The case underscores ongoing concerns about the potential misuse of non‑public information in commodities markets and may prompt further investigations into compliance with insider‑trading rules.
