Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso have left the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the newly formed Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a move that has intensified concerns over the cohesion of the opposition ahead of the next presidential election. The shift follows weeks of speculation after DAILY POST reported that the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano and the Obidient movement, both previously aligned with the ADC, had decided to join the NDC.
In the 2023 presidential race, Obi ran on the Labour Party ticket and secured victories in twelve states, while Kwankwaso, representing the New Nigerian People’s Party, won Kano State. Both candidates amassed more than six million votes each, roughly matching the tally of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar. Their subsequent coalition with ADC was viewed by many as a potential breakthrough for a unified opposition capable of challenging the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The departure of the two leaders has prompted divergent assessments. Solomon Dalung, a former Minister of Sports and Youth Development and senior ADC figure, told DAILY POST that the exit was “a grave surprise” and that the decision undermines the coalition’s democratic purpose. Dalung argued that the Supreme Court had already settled internal party disputes, rendering the court‑case justification for leaving “weak and untenable.” He warned that the joint Obi‑Kwankwaso ticket on the NDC platform has little chance of defeating President Bola Tinubu, noting that the combined 2023 vote totals for the two men fall short of the incumbent’s margin. Dalung also asserted that the ADC remains the most viable opposition force, bolstered by Atiku’s traditional base and lingering support for former President Buhari.
Contrastingly, Abuja‑based political analyst Jide Ojo contended that the defections are a legitimate exercise of constitutional freedom and may actually improve Obi and Kwankwaso’s electoral prospects. Ojo explained that negotiations between Obi’s camp and Atiku’s had stalled, with the latter seeking to be the presidential candidate and Obi preferring the top slot rather than a running‑mate role. Ojo highlighted that the NDC registration deadline of 10 May would have closed the window for party switches, suggesting the timing of the move was strategic. He warned against dismissing the possibility of an upset, citing past surprise outcomes such as Goodluck Jonathan’s 2015 loss.
The realignment also raises questions about regional “zoning” politics. Former presidential aspirant Dele Momodu argued that zoning has become a tool for the Tinubu administration to fragment opposition support along north‑south lines. He warned that the focus on a candidate’s origin distracts from pressing issues such as security and electricity. In response, APC founding member Osita Okechukwu defended zoning as a principle that promotes national cohesion, recalling Atiku Abubakar’s own political rise under the same arrangement.
As the opposition fragments, analysts agree that the ADC is likely to retain the bulk of established party structures and voter bases, while the NDC may attract younger, urban supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso. The next months will determine whether the opposition can coalesce around a single ticket or remain divided, a factor that could significantly influence the balance of power in Nigeria’s forthcoming election.
