The political chessboard in Nigeria has shifted again. Following the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential primary, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, emerged as the party’s standard-bearer. In a move that has raised eyebrows, the party selected Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, a southerner, as his running mate. This pairing marks the second time Atiku has defied the unwritten zoning principle, which dictates a rotational presidency between the north and south. After eight years of northern President Muhammadu Buhari, many believe it is the south’s turn until 2031. Atiku’s earlier attempt to breach this rule in 2023, while running on the PDP ticket, was met with fierce resistance from a united front across the country. That resistance not only cost him the election but also plunged his party into irrelevance.
Atiku himself is a creature of zoning. He benefited from it in 1999 and 2007, serving as vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo, and again in 2027 when he became the presidential candidate of the Action Congress party during the north’s turn. He vocally protested when Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, sought to extend his presidency after the death of Umaru Yar’Adua in 2011. At that time, northern PDP leaders, backed by figures like Rotimi Amaechi, then governor of Rivers State, insisted on a northern candidate. Yet, when northern governors later bent the rules to accommodate Jonathan, Amaechi rallied his state behind the president. Atiku, however, took a different path. He emerged as the northern consensus candidate to challenge Jonathan in the 2011 PDP primaries, securing wins in five northern states—a rare feat against a sitting president. Though Jonathan won, the cracks Atiku created widened, eventually leading to the PDP’s downfall in 2015.
Fast forward to 2015. When Jonathan attempted a second term, Atiku led five sitting PDP governors, including Amaechi, to defect and form the APC. In this new alliance, southern politicians like Amaechi and Bola Tinubu prioritized zoning, backing a northern presidential candidate. The result was Muhammadu Buhari’s victory. Amaechi, as campaign director-general, was instrumental. He leveraged his resources and his bold stance against Jonathan, a fellow southerner, to galvanize the north. Without him, northern Nigeria might not have reclaimed the presidency. Yet, for all his loyalty, Amaechi’s rewards have been meager. As transport minister, he prioritized northern rail projects, including the controversial Kano-Katsina-Maradi line, while his native east languished. He even located a Chinese-donated university of transportation in Buhari’s hometown of Daura, not his own Ubima village.
Now, Amaechi faces a bitter irony. He lost the APC presidential primaries to fellow southerner Bola Tinubu, who also played a key role in Buhari’s 2015 victory. In the ADC primaries, he was soundly defeated by Atiku, a northerner. His sacrifices for northern political interests have left him politically ostracized at home, benefiting his rival, Nyesom Wike. The question is whether the north will ever reciprocate. For a man who once championed zoning, accepting to run as Atiku’s deputy would be a betrayal of his own principles. It would undo his reputation as a pan-Nigerian nationalist and cast him as an anti-southern stooge. The lesson from Nigeria’s Fourth Republic is clear: violating zoning is a costly mistake. Until the nation is socially cohesive, zoning remains essential for fairness and unity.
If Amaechi declines the offer, he may yet avoid becoming a tragic hero. He could simply step back and watch, or support another southern candidate. But if he accepts, he risks being remembered as a fisherman who used an elephant to catch a minnow—a man who loved his neighbor more than himself, to his own detriment.
