The World Bank Country Office in Nigeria has warned that persistent fuel shortages and the public’s difficulty accessing the new currency could heighten uncertainty ahead of the country’s February 25 and March 10 elections. A document obtained by Premium Times reveals that the deadline for exchanging old notes will have social and economic repercussions for vulnerable Nigerians. The Central Bank of Nigeria had previously set February 10 as the cut‑off date for the exchange.
“The shortage of cash compounds fuel shortages that have been ongoing for months,” the World Bank noted. “There is a clear risk that cash shortages cause hardship and frustration, which could escalate social tensions, especially in a febrile political environment ahead of elections on February 25 (presidential and parliamentary) and March 11 (gubernatorial).”
The bank also highlighted that only 45 % of Nigerian adults have a bank account, 34 % have paid or received money digitally in the past year, and merely 9 % have made in‑store payments using digital methods. It projected that Nigeria would be unable to achieve a rapid increase in digital payments sufficient to offset the shortage of new notes within the stipulated deadline. “At about 9 % of total transactions, the level of digital payments remains very limited compared to peer countries, restricting the number of digital use cases for most people’s daily transactions,” the report said.
The World Bank advised that policymakers consider the size of the informal economy when promoting a swift shift to digital payments, as informal businesses may struggle to digitise their payment acceptance without formalisation. It also warned that digital‑infrastructure gaps—such as poor connectivity and limited national ID coverage—and the payment system’s operational reliability must be taken into account before expecting a steep, rapid transition from cash to digital transactions.
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