A growing risk of jet fuel shortages threatens to disrupt flights across Europe and Asia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The vital waterway, through which about a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has been almost entirely closed since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.
Industry experts warn that if the blockade continues, supply shortfalls could begin within weeks. Rystad Energy economist Claudio Galimberti told CNBC that the situation could become “systemic” within three to four weeks, with severe flight reductions in Europe starting as early as May or June. Some cancellations have already occurred, though the European Commission says no shortages have been confirmed yet. A spokeswoman acknowledged that supply issues, especially for jet fuel, could emerge soon.
The Airports Council International Europe has told the European Commission that shortages could begin in early May if tankers are not allowed through the strait by then. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a similar warning, adding that if European markets cannot replace more than half of their lost Middle East jet fuel volumes, stocks could reach critical levels by June.
The impact will vary. Japan has built substantial reserves despite heavy reliance on imports. Within Europe, Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland have comfortable fuel stocks, while the UK, Iceland, and the Netherlands face tighter supplies. France falls in between. Airports and airlines will also be affected differentlyā€”smaller, inland airports are likely to be more vulnerable than major hubs.
Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing carriers including Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and Ryanair, has urged the EU to provide real-time data on jet fuel stocks at airports. Fuel suppliers have resisted sharing sensitive commercial data, complicating planning. TotalEnergies has warned that if Gulf supplies remain blocked into June, it may not be able to meet all customer demand.
A4E has also suggested temporarily allowing imports of US jet fuel, which is produced to slightly different specifications. However, political and logistical hurdles make this unlikely in the short term. With the blockade showing no signs of easing, airlines and airports are bracing for possible disruptions as early as next month.
