A potential disruption to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food crisis, according to Jose Andres, founder of the humanitarian group World Central Kitchen. This strategic waterway handles approximately 20% of global crude oil exports and is also a critical route for nitrogen-based fertilizer shipments. Rising tensions in the region, fueled by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, have already driven up energy prices and unsettled global markets. Andres warned that delays in fertilizer deliveries could result in missing crucial planting windows, which would ultimately reduce crop yields for multiple seasons.
“It is not only oil that leaves through the Strait of Hormuz,” he stated, expressing concern about the broader implications of the conflict. He predicted a significant increase in famine worldwide by the fall of 2026 and 2027. The ongoing conflict has reportedly led to shutdowns of fertilizer plants across the Gulf, further compounding supply constraints. Nitrogen fertilizers account for the majority of global use and support about half of the world’s food production. With the Gulf serving as a major export hub, any shipping disruptions during the peak planting season have intensified shortages and driven up costs for farmers.
Andres cautioned that poorer nations would be the hardest hit by these developments. “In places like Haiti, they don’t serve you a kilo of rice; they serve you one ounce at a time,” he remarked, urging governments to allocate a portion of their national budgets to food security. A report from the UN Development Programme estimates that up to 32 million people across 162 countries could be pushed into poverty due to the wider economic impact of the Middle East conflict, with import-dependent nations facing the greatest strain. The heaviest burden is expected to fall on parts of Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and small island states.
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