The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the quietest in years, thanks to a powerful El Niño that is expected to crush storm development. In a major revision released July 8, meteorologists at Colorado State University slashed their forecast by four storms, now predicting just nine named systems—well below the typical 14.
But don’t let the lower numbers lull you into a false sense of security. The same forecasters caution that any storm that does form could be devastating. “Preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” the outlook stresses.
The culprit is wind shear. El Niño cranks up vertical wind shear, a scissor-like pattern that tears apart developing storms before they can intensify into hurricanes. “We’ve knocked down our numbers more given the increased likelihood for a strong El Niño,” said researcher Phil Klotzbach. He noted one model is now forecasting record-high wind shear for August through October across the Atlantic’s main hurricane development zone.
This season’s forecast is historically low. The last time Klotzbach’s team predicted fewer than 10 named storms was in 2015. The shift feels especially stark after a decade of above-average activity.
The odds of a major U.S. hurricane landfall have dropped to just 17%, far below the average of 43%. The Gulf Coast faces a 10% chance, the East Coast 8%. Yet Florida remains the most vulnerable, with a 49% chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles—down from 74% earlier this year. North Carolina’s odds fell from 54% to 32%.
“The primary reason for the continued drop in predicted storms is due to the increased confidence in the upcoming El Niño. The signal for one of the strongest on record has gotten quite high,” Klotzbach explained.
Hurricane forecasters agree: It only takes one storm to cause a disaster. If you haven’t started preparations yet, now is the time to get ready.
