Nigeria has again fallen short of its OPEC‑mandated crude oil quota. The National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report released by the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that average crude output in April was about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 99 percent of the 1.5 million‑bpd target set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. When condensates are added, total hydrocarbon production reached roughly 1.6 million bpd, still below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark outlined in the 2026 federal budget.
The shortfall marks the ninth consecutive month that Nigeria has missed its OPEC allocation, a trend that began in July 2025. April’s combined crude and condensate output peaked at 1.85 million bpd and fell to a low of 1.46 million bpd during the month. Although this represents an improvement on March’s 1.55 million bpd, it remains insufficient to meet the agreed quota. The country recorded 1.38 million bpd of crude in March, up 69,000 bpd from February’s 1.31 million bpd but still 117,000 bpd below the OPEC target. February’s figures reflected a month‑on‑month decline of 146,000 bpd, widening the production gap.
Nigeria’s oil sector has been hampered for years by crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and chronic underinvestment in upstream activities. While a modest rebound was observed in January, when crude rose from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.46 million bpd, output slumped sharply in February and has struggled to regain momentum.
The federal government and oil operators have repeatedly pledged to lift crude output to 2 million bpd, a level they argue is essential for boosting national revenue, strengthening foreign‑exchange earnings and supporting the implementation of the 2026 budget. OPEC Secretary‑General Haitham Al Ghais has emphasized the importance of member compliance, noting that persistent under‑production could affect collective market stability.
Despite the incremental rise in April, Nigeria’s inability to consistently meet its OPEC quota underscores systemic challenges that require sustained policy intervention and investment. Analysts warn that without decisive action to curb illegal bunkering, protect pipelines and modernise facilities, the country’s production target may remain elusive.
The next NUPRC report is expected in May, and it will provide the first indication of whether the recent uptick signals a longer‑term reversal or merely a short‑term fluctuation. Continued monitoring will be crucial for stakeholders assessing the outlook of Africa’s largest oil producer and its impact on regional energy markets.
